内部消息说北京12.8查出3.61万阳性

https://pkuhelper.pku.edu.cn/hole/##4461488
#新冠 #疫情 #yq
12月9日得到内部消息，昨日北京10万管10混1，查出来3.61万阳性，按照这个数据，北京总人口2100万应该在此基础上乘以21，达到日增70多万的水平，考虑到来参加测试的多半是易感人群（比如外卖餐饮从业者等），所以不能直接乘以21，但是哪怕乘以5也有18万（这还是3.61万管我们当作每管只有1个感染者的情况下），最保守估计北京当前的日增阳性至少不低于15万人，整个疫情发展远远早于预估（预估今天应该在4万，12月20日左右才会超过15万），所以整个时间应该提前了超过10天以上，这样北京可能早在11月末就已经突破了1/1000阈值，而且发展速度也略高于预期，这样这一波疫情峰值时间不是1月5日，而是圣诞节甚至更早。
这样整个策略就都需要改变了，12月19-24日这一周不是高峰前的窗口期，而是峰值期，这一周要尽可能避免感染，12月12-18日这一周也不是安全窗口，而是进入高峰的攀升期，这个周期中感染也不是安全的，医疗机构人员减员从这一周开始已经非常明显。实际上所谓早感染早上岸的时机已经接近关闭。
所以，从个人健康考虑，所谓高峰前感染的时间窗口只到下周初，保守起见，12月15日就应该就视作高峰开始，为期30天至1月中旬高峰结束，1月中旬至1月底是退潮期，1月下旬应该就会回归到2万/日的水平，春运也许会带来一些反复，但是总体上春节后也会是一个相对稳定的状态，第一波冲击结束。
[Alice] ？内部消息哪里的？
[Bob] 那该什么时候润？
[Carol] Re Alice: 昨天就很多流传了
[Bob] Re Alice: 昨日确实大约有10万管10混一
[Dave] 道理是这样，但是“避免感染”很难做到，毕竟气溶胶。。。
[Carol] 希望早发展早结束吧
[Alice] 天呐
[Alice] 这玩意到底得了一次能撑多久啊
[Carol] Re Alice: 目前来看一般来说3-6个月是安全的
[Dave] Re Alice: 我有同学在国外，去年得了一次，睡了一觉就好了，之后再也没得过
[Alice] Re Dave: 我的同学里有那种得了之后甚至不知道自己阳的。
但是也有那种得了之后烧好几天的。
[Eve] 啊啊啊啊赶快润！
[Francis] 等等，这是存量，不是每日新增吧？已经得了的又不是不测了
[Grace] 如果是一共十万管十混一的话，这样估算是不是还是有点值得怀疑呢

猫咪

估算方式值得商榷，但身边情况来看确实很严重了

Here are some comments:

Data Accuracy and Sources: It's important to note that the information provided seems to be based on internal sources or rumors. When dealing with public health information, especially during a pandemic, it is crucial to rely on official sources and data to ensure accuracy and avoid spreading misinformation.

Response and Strategy: The discussion touches on the need to adjust strategies and responses based on the evolving situation. Indeed, during a pandemic, it is essential for authorities to be flexible and adapt their approaches as new information becomes available. However, these adjustments should be made based on verified data and expert advice.

Personal Health and Immunity: There is a conversation about individuals' immunity and the duration of protection after getting infected. While some individuals may experience COVID-19 differently, it's important to note that reinfections are possible, and the duration of immunity can vary. Public health measures should not rely solely on the assumption that individuals are immune after infection.

Precautions: The urgency expressed by some participants in the discussion highlights the importance of taking precautions, such as wearing masks, practicing social distancing, and following public health guidelines. These measures remain crucial in curbing the spread of the virus, regardless of the specific details of the outbreak.

Data Verification: As one participant points out, there may be some skepticism about the numbers presented, especially regarding whether they represent daily new cases or cumulative cases. Clarifying and verifying the data is essential for understanding the true extent of the outbreak.

In summary, while this news provides insights into the ongoing discussions and concerns related to the COVID-19 situation in Beijing, it's essential to rely on official sources and expert guidance for accurate information and to prioritize public health measures to prevent further spread of the virus. Speculation and rumors can lead to confusion and may not always reflect the actual state of the pandemic.

最近我已经感冒两次了，不会吧